The Anatomy of a Silent Crisis.

The following is an extract from a new report from the Global Humanitarian Forum on Climate Change.

Public surveys show that people worldwide are concerned about climate change. Science is now unequivocal as to the reality of climate change. Human activities, in particular emissions of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide are recognized as its principle cause. Nevertheless awareness about the impacts of climate change is low, particularly among the poor. In industrialized countries, climate change is still considered a solely environmental problem. It is seen as a distant threat that might affect our future. A viewpoint reinforced by pictures of glaciers and polar bears — not human beings

And yet Australia is witnessing a full decade of drought. Large tracts of the United States are exposed
to stronger storms and severe water shortages — leading to crop loss, job loss, fires, and death.
We testify here to the human face of this dangerous problem. The first hit and worst affected by climate change are the world’s poorest groups. Ninety-nine percent of all casualties occur in developing countries. A stark contrast to the one percent of global emissions attributable to some 50 of the least developed nations. If all countries were to pollute so little, there would be no climate change

The effects of pollution driven by economic growth in some parts of the world are now driving millions
of people into poverty elsewhere. At the same time, decades-old aid pledges continue to go unmet. The Millennium Development Goals are endangered. And the poor lack capacity to make their voices heard in international arenas, or attract public and private investment. For those living on the brink of survival, climate change is a very real and dangerous hazard. For many, it is a final step of deprivation.

Where does a fisherman go when warmer sea temperatures deplete coral reefs and fish stocks? How can a small farmer keep animals or sow crops when the water dries up? Or families be provided for when fertile soils and freshwater are contaminated with salt from rising seas?

Climate change is an all encompassing threat, directly affecting the environment, the economy, health and safety. Many communities face multiple stresses with serious social, political and security implications, both domestically and abroad. Millions of people are uprooted or permanently on the move as a result. Many more millions will follow.

Even the most ambitious climate agreement will take years to slow or reverse global warming. A global carbon economy has been the basis of all productive efforts since centuries. Emissions are still steadily increasing, and the world population is set to grow by forty percent by 2050.

If we do not reverse current trends by close to 2020, however, we may have failed. Global warming will pass the widely acknowledged danger level of two degrees, since there is an approximately 20 year delay between emission reductions and the halting of their warming effect. This report’sclearly demonstrates that climate change is already highly dangerous at well below one degree of warming. Two degrees would be catastrophic.

Weak political leadership as evident today is all the more alarming then. It is not, however, surprising, since so few people are aware of just how much is at stake. That we are already this far into the most important negotiations ever for the future of this planet without a clear idea of the full impact of climate change on human society speaks volumes in itself. In this respect, I hope that the report will change political attitudes, spur public debate and more research.

Copenhagen needs to be the most ambitious international agreement ever negotiated. The alternative is mass starvation, mass migration, and mass sickness. If political leaders cannot assume responsibility for Copenhagen, they choose instead responsibility for failing humanity. In 2009, national leadership goes beyond the next elections, and far beyond national borders

We live in a global village and we each have a responsibility to protect our planet. Isn’t it logical and equitable, therefore, to insist that those who pollute have a duty to clean up? Pollution by some affects us all. Every one of us needs to understand that pollution has a cost, and this cost must be borne by the Polluter. Least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions are the world’s poorest communities who suffer most from climate change. This is fundamentally unjust. If efforts to build a global framework to address climate change are to succeed and endure they must be based on the principles of fairness and equity. People everywhere deserve climate justice. And everywhere people must stand up and demand exactly that from their representatives.

Climate change is a truly global issue. Its impacts, while skewed, are indiscriminate and threaten us all. People everywhere deserve not to suffer because of climate change. People everywhere deserve a future for their children. People everywhere deserve to have leaders who find the courage to achieve a solution to this crisis.

We must go beyond piecemeal changes to alter the very structure of the global economy. This will only be feasible if we manage to force a global price on carbon that is more representative of its costs to society, calculated at over 1 trillion dollars per year today according to this report’s findings. Taking these costs into account would redirect resources, exponentially multiplying possibilities for taking a greener path.

Indeed, that transformation is likely to prove the greatest opportunity for new economic growth since the advent of the industrial revolution. Renewable clean energy in particular would benefit the poor most, because of health, social and access reasons. It could also help springboard development: remembering, in particular, the 1.6 billion people on this planet who lack access to any modern forms of energy whatsoever.

When it comes to dealing with climate change, everybody must contribute according to their fair share of responsibility for the problem. No nation has the right to pollute. The role of this report is to document the greatest ongoing silent crisis of human history. When reading these pages it must not be forgotten that solutions exist: we can take preventative measures, we can adopt greener practices, and we can provide a dignified existence for all. We can contain climate change and end the suffering it causes.

But nobody can do it alone. Even if the United States or China — the world’s largest polluters in total emissions — were to stop polluting today, if others are not on board, climate change will continue to menace human society. Together, we can multiply the possibilities for overcoming it, and lessen the burden on everyone. But we must act now.

Humanity is facing a rare challenge. But it is a common challenge. There are no sides in the fight for climate justice.

Kofi A. Annan,
President of the Global Humanitarian Forum

Climate Change One Year On.

As the rain pelted against my window today I reflected on the fact that we have less than 50days left to the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen. Almost one year ago I organized an International climate change conference here in Cork. I came across today the notes that I used in my opening speech to delegates attending. I thought I would share my comments and views of that day as they are even more relevant today in the mist of our current financial uncertainty. With all the media attention on the financial chaos one might think that climate change has gone away, it hasn't, its worst than we even considered one year ago.

Anyway this is what I said:

Let me begin by saying thanks to all of you who’ve traveled here today, for giving of your time to this event.

We all made this journey for a reason.

By being here today you have shown that you are concerned about our future, perhaps wishing to learn more about climate change and how each of us may work individually and together to tackle the enormous challenges that lie ahead.

That’s the journey we are on today.

I organized this conference motivated by a single, simple powerful idea, that I might play a small part in building a better future. We are all our future has to work with, each of us here today will play a part in deciding that future. It is up to us.

Never before was so much knowledge available to so many capable of understanding and acting. We are the most prosperous educated generation ever sustained by our planet.

Now science has presented us with a profound message, it is a imminent reality that can bring about the destruction of humanity.

Together we bear the biggest responsibility ever borne in our history.

We are the generation that can decide the faith of billions of people, the faith of our species and the natural world which sustains all life on this planet rest’s on our shoulders. It is an extraordinary responsibility.

Our time will be regarded as the most important opportunity for humanity to prove its intellect and resolve.

We must ask, do we realize this?

In the past two years the world has reached an unprecedented level of awareness on climate change yet it appears the public are not moved to react.

It is critical that we begin to engage reality. We still have an opportunity to act and to minimize the level of devastation that climate change will bring about.

The promise of a green technological and industrial revolution is at hand; a new age of green economics and truly sustainable development.

The possibility of a shift to renewable sources of energy is now available to us along with more efficient public transport, energy conservation and sustainable development.

It will require political leadership supported by an informed public.

The shift to a greener economy needs urgent assistance; we cannot wait for the economic conditions to improve as the costs of inaction – in ecological, human and financial terms – will far exceed the costs of action now.

Are we willing to deal with the challenge?

As a society we are distracted from reality and encouraged to go on living unsustainable lives as if climate change was science fiction, its time to wake up.

You may not know it but we live in a society where we are considered to be amongst the top 1% of the world’s population.

We as a society are one of the largest contributors of greenhouse gas emissions per capita of any nation on the world.

As a nation and individually we have a long and difficult path to take and it won’t be easy, we’ll have to make hard choices and although Governments will play a crucial role in bringing about the changes we need, each of us here today, in our own lives will have to accept responsibility for educating the wider community in which we live, sharing our knowledge and together help change the way society views the world.

We don’t have must time.

I believe we can transform our society, we can transform our nation, we can turn this crisis of climate change into a moment of opportunity for innovation and job creation and an incentive for business. This conference must be a vehicle to push us forward to a common purpose. That is the purpose here today for me. If you see, as I see, an alternative future, a more sustainable way of living, you must believe that you can make a difference.

I myself like many of you here today was influenced by distinguished scientists such as our esteemed colleagues here today Professor Robert Devoy and Professor Colin Woodroffe who were lead authors and contributors to the UN IPCC Climate Change 4th Assessment report which received the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize.

I thank sincerely Dr Pachauri who received that price on behalf of the IPCC team for taking time to make his address for us here in Cork today, and to all the other distinguished participants in particular Dr James Hansen for his live presentation later today from the USA, and to Minister John Gormley for taking time out of his busy schedule to open this conference, I would like to acknowledge their work and dedication to which we all owe a great debt of gratitude.

We have today some of the most distinguished scientists, experts and civic leaders on climate change in the world addressing this event. I am immensely proud and honored that they have all willingly given of their time to share their knowledge and experience with each of us here today. For me this is thee most significant climate change educational event yet to have occurred in this country.

This would not have happened without the support and generosity of our main sponsors, EnviroManagement Services and Bord Gais. For that I would like to thank John Mullins the CEO of Bord Gais and oddly myself as EnviroManagement Services. To add to the uniqueness of this remarkable event is the generous third level and second level sponsor programme’s we have facilitated.

No conference on climate change is effective without the inclusion of the most important generation. To the student delegates here today representing secondary school’s in Cork city and county I am grateful to your sponsors the Change campaign, SWS Natural Resources and Arups Consulting Engineers for their generous support and providing much needed financial assistance to the running cost of this event.
As this is science week it is remarkable and encouraging that we are sponsoring so many schools and universities to attend this event. To all the third level students from around Ireland I thank you for coming and your sponsor NTR for their key sponsorship. Last but not least to our other key sponsors that have made this day possible, SWS Group, Musgrave Group, Trocaire, the EPA and BT for further reducing our carbon footprint and providing the technology for live video conference today without which some of our speakers would not be able to participate.

A vital aspect of the conference is not just about raising awareness here but assisting communities in developing countries. I hope through this conference and your attendance here today that Partnership for change can be able to provide a solar power initiative for a entire community that has no access to electricity, in addition to benefiting other charities and environmental organizations.

For some of you here today this will be your first experience of such an event, I hope that we do not disappoint. I know that here today we will witness the seeds of new vision and leadership for the next generation. We are all part of the problem of climate change and global warming. Today you are part of the solution.

Floods, fires seen testing EU climate response

Flash floods, wildfires and heatwaves brought on by climate change could test Europe's ability to insure against and respond to natural disasters, a new report warns.

Flooding of the Nile Delta and further desertification of north Africa could also unleash a wave of migrants from Europe's southern neighbors, said delegates at the launch of the European Union-backed ADAM report. The European Union last year agreed to curb greenhouse gas emissions by roughly a fifth by 2020 and is now preparing for talks in December on a global deal.

The 27-country EU hopes to prevent global temperatures rising beyond 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures, but is also having to prepare for the repercussions of missing the target. "Even if we aim for 2 degrees, the uncertainty in the climate system means significant risks of rises of 3 degrees or above," said the ADAM project's coordinator, Mike Hulme. The report warned that flood risk in many eastern European states has exceeded 1 percent of gross domestic product.

"In some events, national authorities have had severe fiscal problems in financing the recovery process," it said. Even wealthier nations can struggle to cope with the huge cost, the report added, citing 2002 floods in Austria that led to a fiscal crisis that ultimately triggered new elections and a change in the balance of power.

The report warns of a 15 percent risk that Europe's disaster compensation scheme -- the EU Solidarity Fund -- could become overwhelmed with claims above its annual resources of 1 billion euros ($1.35 billion). To counter that danger, the scheme could be altered to become a source of reinsurance or capital for national disaster insurance schemes, it recommended.

SOLIDARITY FUND

"What this report shows is that we had better get prepared by taking the political decisions, such as making sure the solidarity fund can provide help in the dimensions needed," said ADAM project manager Henry Neufeldt.

Around 44 percent of calls on the solidarity fund are for floods and 27 percent for wildfires, he added. The fund has not previously covered drought damage. Neufeldt said climate change would raise the risks of wildfires in the Mediterranean region -- especially in southeastern countries such as Albania and Croatia -- but good forest management could keep risks in check. Other issues highlighted by the report include rising wages and return on capital in cities such as Madrid at the heart of drought-risk zones, and soaring power consumption in southern Europe for air-conditioning.  Speaking at the launch of the report, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, vice chairman of the United Nations climate panel, warned that failure to act could ultimately lead to sea level rises of several meters, displacing millions from low-lying islands and deltas.

"The Nile delta is the closest to Europe, and that's an area where 10 million people -- equal to the population of Belgium -- are living, cultivating and working at less than a meter above sea level," Ypersele said. "The pressure from sea level rise on this population will most likely induce a combination of relocation within the country, and migration out of it," he added.

Source: Reuters

The Environment is the Economy

As an environmental scientist I am trained amongst other things to examine and make predictions of the potential impacts of proposed development on our environment including air quality, noise, water, waste management, economic, transport, cultural, landscape and heritage. In doing so I examine the ecological, physical and scientific aspects of a development. After almost twenty years as an environmental consultant working in diverse industries as well as research and development I believe that our political system or wider community has yet to realise what you may already know. That is that our entire economic well-being and future security is based on one simple entity, our environment.

We all in some way are aware of this, yet the manner of development which has occurred in this country and globally has failed to recognise the importance of our environment, the services it offers us and the economic benefit we derive from it. The environment provides critical ecological functions that enable society to function. According to Nature an international journal of science, the value of these services to society have been estimated to be worth on average €24 trillion per year, twice the global gross national product of the entire world. Apart from providing us with clean air, water and soil our environment provides us with opportunities to support our economy through the marketing of tourism and the potential to develop a green economy. The industrial revolution passed Ireland by due largely to our colonial past and direct rule from England where Ireland was largely seen as an agricultural producer. One of the positive impacts of this is that Ireland has the lowest percentage of contaminated land of any nation in Europe. In the UK alone there are an estimated 100,000 contaminated sites compared to a few hundred here in Ireland, in comparison according to the Worldwatch Institute over ten million hectares of agricultural land in China is contaminated from industrial and agricultural pollution.

One of the reasons we have a relatively clean environment is due to population density. In the week that commemorates the Great Famine in Ireland it is remarkable to note that in the nineteenth century pre-famine Ireland had a population similar to that of Spain; approaching 9 million people. Today the population of Spain is 47 million. As a consequence of the famine and mass emigration our population declined dramatically to less than 5million. During the famine years approximately 200,000 people left of shores each year seeking a new life in the USA, Canada and Australia. Remarkable almost every developed nation of the world shows that population size doubled generally every 200-300 yrs. In the nineteenth and early twentieth century this timescale reduced to 100yrs and today stands at less than 50yrs. While upwards of 70 million people around the world claim Irish decent, today Ireland still has a population less than that of 1830’s. Imagine if you can how Ireland would look today if we had 70 million people living on this island? How would we have managed the development, where would we as an island nation get the resources to feed, shelter and provide essential services for this enormous number of people. Fortunately however we have the least densely populated country in Europe and one of the cleanest most unspoilt and least polluted environments, but it came at a terrible cost, through famine and mass migration.

So what advantage does this give us compared to other countries? Low population growth means less impact on the environment through the provision of infrastructure and services. The United Nations Environment Programme and the World Health Organisation have highlighted the enormous challenges that face people living in less fortunate countries. Today approximately 1.2 billion people do not have access to clean drinking water, by 2025 it is predicted that this figure will rise to over 3 billion people. Food security is now a major national security treat to many countries.  As the world’s population continues to increase and natural resources continue to diminish feeding humanity and providing essential drinking water will prove an enormous challenge. More worryingly the impacts of climate change and global warming could result in an environmental, economic and humanitarian catastrophe of unknown proportions that is unless we act now to change the way we live and protect the environment that we all live in.

When I examine the current economic crises this country faces I believe that it is very the quality of our environment that offers us the opportunities to live a more sustainable way of life while providing, energy, jobs and security for all our people. Our landscape heritage, coastline, rivers and lakes, mountains and land provide for us a unique opportunity to invest in our country and generate wealth and a sustainable economy beyond what most may dream of.

We must understand that our economy entirely depends on our environment, clean water for society, industry, fishing and tourism: our geographic location on the edge of Europe provides us with the greatest opportunity of all to invest in clean renewable energy, providing clean, cheap and renewable energy to drive our economy, operate our businesses and run our homes. Our largely unpolluted agricultural land proves us with a unique marketing opportunity to build an organic food and agricultural industry that offers enormous potential in addition to generating biomass from forestry and energy crops.

Our unspoilt landscapes provide areas for recreation and the development of sustainable tourism products that could help secure the future of rural Ireland providing much needed jobs and sustaining communities. From the Baltimore Fiddle Festival to the Rose of Tralee we offer people what is needed now more than ever, community spirit and a passion for life. Our generous spirit, character, love of music, festivals, folklore and people provide yet another unique opportunity to Ireland, only by supporting it correctly showing vision and innovation can we will continue to have a world class product.

Our future is in our own hands, we must believe in ourselves, show determination and intelligence for change and we will overcome the challenges we now face. But it requires new ideas and new vision, we must begin by re-examining how we plan for development and provide essential services, we must be ambitious and innovative. Above all else we must protect our environment and heritage for without these we have nothing to offer.